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Multivariate spatial interaction models as applied to China's inter-provincial migration, 1982--1990.

机译:1982--1990年应用于中国省际迁移的多元空间互动模型。

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摘要

By using spatial interaction models (SIMs) to estimate place-to-place migration, it usually means that we employ some known information to estimate migration flow patterns. The conventional spatial interaction modelling of migration has been questioned for its lack of explanatory power. The present study takes a new perspective that has not been attempted before; that is, multiple socioeconomic variables can be included in the conventional SIMs. Models based on this new approach are termed Multivariate Spatial Interaction Models (MSIMs). In this particular study, it involves using the two additional variables, the average total annual investment and migrant stock, together with total out-migrants of each province and a distance matrix, to estimate China's province-to-province migration flows. The fundamental idea behind this new perspective is to weigh the socioeconomic importance of each province, so that migration flows will not only be accounted for by the traditional spatial distance but also be accounted for by socioeconomic conditions of provinces.; The proposed MSIMs are derived under the framework of the information minimisation principle. MSIMs are successfully calibrated utilising the 1982--87 and 1985--90 province-to-province migration data for the 28 provinces of China. The models are calibrated by iterative procedures written in FORTRAN 77. The MSIMs are further extended to estimate the origin-specific migration flows. The importance of the two additional variables is evaluated in terms of the relative contribution to the performance of the models. The original contribution of the present research can be understood to lie in the new proposed MSIMs, in the extension to modelling origin-specific flows, which have not attempted before, and in the successful empirical application of the models to the Chinese inter-provincial migration data.; The empirical results illustrate that all the MSIMs produce better results than the conventional SIMs. In other words, all models with the additional variable(s) are capable of replicating migration flows with a much-improved degree of accuracy, in comparison with the conventional model. The calibration has therefore provided empirical support for the validity and utility of the multivariate approach to the spatial interaction modelling of migration. However, the results do not necessarily imply that more variables included in the model would result in a corresponding improvement in model performance. Furthermore, a comparison of performance level between the MSIMs and origin-specific MSIMs indicates that the estimation of origin-specific migration flows can further improve the degree of accuracy in replicating the observed migration.; Major forces that influence China's inter-provincial migration are represented by the two additional variables ¾ migrant stock and total annual investment. These two variables are appropriate in that they reflect both migration policy change and economic development strategy. The empirical results also imply that selecting appropriate variables is crucial in calibrating migration flows within the proposed framework, because variable selection must be based on the specific country or areal contexts, on the one hand, and is also dependant upon the availability of data, on the other.
机译:通过使用空间交互模型(SIM)估计地点到地点的迁移,通常意味着我们使用一些已知信息来估计迁移流模式。迁移的传统空间相互作用模型因缺乏解释力而受到质疑。本研究采用了以前从未尝试过的新观点。也就是说,传统的SIM卡中可以包含多个社会经济变量。基于这种新方法的模型称为多元空间交互模型(MSIM)。在这项特殊的研究中,它涉及使用两个附加变量,即年均投资总额和移民存量,以及每个省的总外迁人口和一个距离矩阵,来估算中国的省到省的移民流量。这种新观点背后的基本思想是权衡每个省的社会经济重要性,这样,移民流动不仅将由传统的空间距离来解释,而且还将由省的社会经济条件来解释。所提出的MSIM是在信息最小化原理的框架下得出的。利用1982--87年和1985--90年中国28个省的省间迁移数据成功地对MSIM进行了校准。通过用FORTRAN 77编写的迭代程序对模型进行校准。MSIM进一步扩展为估算特定于源的迁移流。根据对模型性能的相对贡献来评估这两个附加变量的重要性。可以将本研究的原始贡献理解为:新提出的MSIMs,对建模的原点流建模的扩展(以前从未尝试过)以及该模型在中国跨省移民中的成功经验应用。数据。;实验结果表明,所有MSIM都比常规SIM产生更好的结果。换句话说,与常规模型相比,具有附加变量的所有模型都能够以大大提高的准确性来复制迁移流。因此,该校准为多元方法对迁移的空间相互作用建模的有效性和实用性提供了经验支持。但是,结果不一定意味着模型中包含的更多变量将导致模型性能的相应改善。此外,对MSIM和特定于起源的MSIM之间的性能水平的比较表明,特定于起源的迁移流的估计可以进一步提高复制观察到的迁移的准确性。影响中国跨省移民的主要力量由两个额外变量¾移民存量和年度总投资表示。这两个变量是适当的,因为它们既反映了移民政策的变化又反映了经济发展战略。实证结果还暗示,选择合适的变量对于在提议的框架内校准移民流至关重要,因为一方面,变量选择必须基于特定的国家或地区背景,并且还取决于数据的可用性。另一个。

著录项

  • 作者

    He, Jiao Sheng.;

  • 作者单位

    The University of Saskatchewan (Canada).;

  • 授予单位 The University of Saskatchewan (Canada).;
  • 学科 Geography.; Sociology Demography.; Sociology Theory and Methods.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2000
  • 页码 247 p.
  • 总页数 247
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 自然地理学;人口统计学;社会学理论与方法论;
  • 关键词

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