摘要：The credit risks of third-party online payment become increasingly significant,which dama-ges all the parties'interest and increases the difficulty of risk supervision.From the perspective of In-stitutional Economics,this article constructs an index system and reveals two points in the analysis. First,the legal system factor,the history of users'credit,the security of financial transactions,and handling of precipitation funds exert relatively large influence on the credit risks;second,the interest balancing indicators generally show lower impacts.To guard against the credit risks in China,this ar-ticle proposes a number of measures.First,regulation ideas should be innovated and a unified credit system of power and responsibility must be constructed;second,the efficiency of supervision should be improved by amplifying its influence;and third,an incentive-compatible dynamic mechanism should be designed.%我国第三方网络支付存在的信用风险逐渐显现，这既造成了交易各方的利益损失，也增大了风险监管的难度。基于制度经济学的视角，通过构建指标体系进行分析，得出法律制度因素、用户信用记录、交易资金安全性和沉淀资金处理情况对第三方网络支付的信用风险影响相对较大，利益权衡类指标普遍影响偏低。因此，我国信用风险防范亟需创新管制思路，构建权责统一的信用体系；发挥信号传递作用，提高监管效率；设计激励相容的动态机制。
摘要：A number of findings are drawn from the analysis based on dynamic monitoring data of na-tional floating population in 2013.First,with a significant internal variance,the floating population's settlement intention in city generally is not strong;second,the settlement intention is considerably in-fluenced by their employment status,including their occupation,categories of their industries and companies,employment identities,the local working years,personal monthly income,family month-ly income,types of labor contracts,and so on;third,the floating population's perception of discrimina-tion exerts a significantly negative effect on their settlement intention in city;and fourth,the discrim-ination perception and settlement intention of the floating population both show considerable regional variance.It is argued that,in order to raise the floating population's settlement intention,the adminis-trative sectors must take several measures.First,the public service system should be upgraded to raise the cities'attractiveness to the floating population;second,the employment status of the floating population should be improved and more stable and decent positions should be provided to the floating population;third,the harmony between the locals and the floating population must be carefully devel-oped to reduce the floating population's perception of discrimination.%通过对2013年全国流动人口动态监测数据的分析，结果表明：流动人口在流入城市的定居意愿不强，内部差异较大；流动人口的职业类别、行业类别、单位性质、就业身份、本地工作年数、个人月收入、家庭月收入、劳动合同类型等就业状况对其在流入城市的定居意愿具有显著影响效应；流动人口的歧视知觉对其定居意愿存在显著的负向影响效应；流动人口的歧视知觉和定居意愿均存在显著的地区差异。要提高流动人口在流入城市的定居意愿，城市管理当局应完善公共服务体系，提升城市对流动人口的吸引力；改善流动人口的就业状况，帮助其实现稳定就业、体面就业；促进本地人与流动人口的和谐共处，降低流动人口的歧视知觉。
摘要：提升区域物流能力能推动区域经济持续地增长。选取中国西部12省区的物流能力作为研究对象，运用TOPDIS决策方法对它们的提升方法进行定量实证研究，找到了影响各省区物流能力的关键因素，获得了直观的提升数据结果，并给出了相应的最优提升建议。研究表明，该提升方法计算简便，计算结果直观、清晰，有较好的可操作性和实用价值。%The improvement of regional logistics capability (RLC)can promote the sustainable growth of regional economy.In order to improve RLC effectively,this article looks into the RLC of 1 2 prov-inces and regions in western China,and explores the methods of improving RLC quantitatively with TOPDIS decision-making method.The study reveals the key factors affecting the RLC of the prov-inces and regions,together with the direct data of improvements.Therefore,the article provides the optimal improvement suggestions accordingly.It is proved that the methods proposed in this article are convenient in calculation,clear and direct in results demonstration,and outstanding in operability and practicability.
摘要：The airport is an indispensable subj ect in air transportation,and punctual flights necessitate the support of airports.However,there is no provision of the private liabilities of airports in flight de-lay,which impairs the legal j ustice.It is necessary to bring airports into the system of private liability in order to keep the balance of the risks and benefits of the private subj ects,to protect the benefits of passengers,and to optimize the punctuality of flights.The carriers and passengers should enj oy the right to be claimers when airports assume the liability of flight delay.The third party's liability should also be specified and such measures as flight delay insurance must be taken to guarantee the feasibility of this regulation.%机场是航空运输中的重要参与者，航班时刻的正常实现离不开机场的有效支持，机场不予配合可能造成航班延误。然而，在航班延误私法责任视野中，对于机场的私法责任未予以充分重视，损害了法律公正。为了保持航空业主体利益与风险的均衡，保障航空旅客利益，优化航班正点率，有必要将机场作为航班延误的私法主体纳入航班延误责任体系之中，赋予相应主体对于机场的赔偿请求权，使机场对其控制范围内的事由造成的航班延误损失承担责任，同时建立第三人责任、航班延误险等辅助制度保障机场承担责任的可行性。
摘要：As one of the main forms of the three pension insurances,tax-deferred private pension insur-ance was originated in Europe and America,mainly represented by American investment model and German insurance model.A number of measures in tax-deferred private pension insurance are pro-posed based on the review of foreign models and experience and the analyses of the necessity,feasibili-ty and theoretical foundations for domestic implementation of tax-deferred private pension insurance. First,institutional innovation and supply should be increased for the establishment of tax-deferred private pension insurance business;second,the standardization of the institution should be comple-mented by the tax preferential policies;third,a good social atmosphere should be created to enhance the awareness of public insurance and sharing responsibility;fourth,the overall precision manage-ment and the actuarial balance should be integrated.%个税递延型商业养老保险作为第三支柱商业养老保险的一种主要形式，发端于欧美国家，主要有以美国为代表的投资型模式和以德国为代表的保险型模式。基于对国外模式、经验的考察以及对国内实行个税递延型商业养老保险的理论基础、必要性和可行性等分析，得出在我国采用个税递延型商业养老保险的路径选择：加大制度创新与供给，建立个税递延型商业养老保险；制度规范与税收优惠政策并举；营造良好的社会氛围，增强民众保险与责任共担意识；统筹精准管理与精算平衡。
摘要：以秦皇岛港煤炭供应链为研究对象，分析在我国现行煤炭供需市场和运输环境的大背景下，牛鞭效应对煤炭供应链的影响。结果表明：牛鞭效应造成供应链中节点企业煤炭滞压严重；供应链物流成本增加；市场中煤炭价格大幅度波动；煤炭企业生产异常；供应链中出现资源的闲置和浪费。进一步分析秦皇岛港煤炭供应链的运行，得到牛鞭效应形成的主要成因是：交货方式的缺陷、煤炭订购策略的影响、企业间竞争的博弈、运输条件的影响以及供应链信息沟通不畅。%By analyzing the current coal supply-and-demand market and transportation environment of Qinhuangdao port,this paper intends to investigate the bullwhip effect in the coal supply chain in Chi-na.The results show that the bullwhip effect in the supply chain causes coal overstock,logistics cost increase,coal price swing,coal production abnormality,and resources waste.This paper summarizes the main causes of the bullwhip effect in the coal supply chain of Qinhuangdao port.It is found that the bullwhip effect is mainly formed due to the defect of the delivery ways,coal order strategy,game and competition between the companies,coal transportation condition,and failure in information communication.
摘要：新世纪以来，中国工业化加速，提前实现了党的十六大(2002)提出的2020年基本工业化核心目标和主要指标。当前，中国作为世界最大工业生产国，已经出现了后工业化时代的基本特征，并带动世界进入到了后工业化时代。在这一背景下，中国不是去工业化或放弃工业化，而是创新新型工业化道路，成为世界制造强国。根据《中国制造2025》，推动我国制造业与信息化、互联网化、数字化深度融合，向质量增长、中高端增长、国内外制造为主增长转变。现代服务业增长已经成为中国经济增长的第一大发动机，中国城镇就业的最大渠道、服务贸易成为中国对外贸易的新增长点。通过新型工业化与现代服务业的融合发展，推动我国经济向形态更高级、分工更优化、结构更合理的阶段演化。%Since the new century,China's industrialization has accelerated,accomplishing in advance the major goals of industrialization in 2020 made on the 16th Congress of the Communist Party of Chi-na(2002).Presently China is the largest industrial producer in the world.Some characteristics of post-industrialization have emerged and China is pushing forward the post-industrialization of the whole world.Therefore,rather than de-industrialization,China needs to explore a new road for innovative industrialization and become one of the world's manufacturing powers.Based on the blueprint ofChina Manufactory in 2025,we should facilitate the comprehensive integration between manufacturing in-dustry and informationalization,Internet,and digitalization,and move towards the growth of medium and high-end products,quality improvement,and growth in domestic and international manufactur-ing.Modern service industry has become the first engine of China's economic growth.As the largest channel for urban employment development,service trade has become the largest growth point of Chi-na's foreign trade.It is argued that,by integrating the new type of industrialization with modern serv-ice industry,we should upgrade China's economy into stages of better economic pattern,optimized la-bor division,and more rational economic structures.
摘要：In the last 25 years of opening and development,Pudong New District attaches great impor-tance to the strategic concentration and overall development of talents.The development of the strate-gies has experienced four stages,namely,infrastructure construction,industrial system formation, industrial function enhancement,and industrial transformation and upgrading.It has gradually be-come a unique high-level talent gathering place and accumulated practical experience with regional characteristics,i.e.,Pudong mode,which is featured by the industrial clusters promoting talent aggre-gation,market-driven allocation of human resources,policy support to promote talent gathering,pro-j ect for cultivating talent aggregation,and high-quality public service environment,etc.It is argued that,to construct a scientific and technological innovation center with global influence,Pudong should further promote the high-level talents convergence,and a number of measures should be taken.First, the talent recruitment should strategically shift from preferential policies to institutional innovation;second,an innovative entrepreneurial culture should be constructed in favor of the development of tal-ents;third,an international public service environment should be built for the high-level talents;and last,the market system of high-level human resources allocation should be established.%开发开放25年来，浦东新区非常注重人才的战略性集聚和整体性开发，历经了基础设施建设、产业体系形成、产业功能提升和产业转型升级这四个阶段，逐渐形成了国内独具特色的高端人才聚集地，并积累了具有区域特点的实践经验，即浦东模式。包括产业集聚推动人才聚集、市场主导人力资源配置、政策辅助推动人才聚集、项目化培育人才聚集、高品质公共服务环境等。为进一步推动高层次人才发展，浦东应从政策优惠向制度创新的引才战略转变，在培育有利于人才发展的创新创业文化、构建国际化的人才公共服务环境、提升高层次人才资源市场化配置水平等方面予以强化，全力推动具有全球影响力科技创新中心的建设。
摘要：伴随冷链市场的日益增大，断链风险问题日益突出，冷链物流断链风险影响行业的健康发展。剖析冷链物流运营全过程，发现冷链物流断链主要存在运作风险、设备风险、信息风险、技术风险、人员风险、政策风险、突发风险等7个方面的风险因素，以此构建冷链物流断链风险评价指标体系；基于熵权可拓决策模型，构建表征我国冷链物流断链风险状态的多指标属性评价模型；就某食品冷链物流企业的断链风险数据进行实例研究。结果表明：冷链物流企业的断链风险一般处于较低危险状态；评价结果基本与实际一致，体现了指标选取和模型构建的有效性，可为解决冷链物流的断链风险提供新的思路。%The expansion of cold chain market increases the risk of chain scission,which affects the healthy development of the whole cold chain logistics industry.This article analyzes the whole process of cold chain logistics operation,and identifies seven maj or risks,namely,the operational risk,the e-quipment risk,the information risk,the technical risk,the personnel risk,the policy risk,and the e-mergency risk.Based on the analysis,this article builds a risk assessment system for the cold chain lo-gistics,and constructs a multi-index evaluation model to characterize the risk state of cold chain logis-tics in China with the entropy weight extension decision model.With the help of this model,a re-search is conducted to analyze the data of food chain scission risk.The results show that the chain scis-sion risk of cold chain logistics enterprise is generally at a low rate,which is basically consistent with the actual state,proving the effectiveness of the index selection and the model.It is believed that this research provides new approaches to dealing with the risk of cold chain logistics chain scission.
摘要：The strategic layout of"Four Comprehensives"is one of the hottest issues in the current aca-demic circles.Since February 2015,experts from different fields have initiated a multi-disciplinary, multi-faceted,and multi-angled interpretation of a series of theoretical issues related to"Four Com-prehensives".A number of achievements have already been reached.This paper aims to summarize, sort out and evaluate the current literature from the perspectives of the value and meaning,the scien-tific connotation,the internal logic,the evolution paths,and the coordinated promotion of"Four Comprehensives".It is believed that this review is of benefit to further deepen the research and discus-sion on the strategic layout of"Four Comprehensives".%"四个全面"战略布局是当前学术理论界重点关注的问题。2015年2月以来，专家学者开始围绕"四个全面"的一系列理论问题展开了多学科、多方位、多角度的解读和研究，并初步取得了一系列成果。从"四个全面"的价值意义、科学内涵、内在逻辑、演进脉络和协调推进等几个方面对当前学术理论界的研究成果进行归纳、梳理和评析，有利于把"四个全面"战略布局的研究讨论进一步引向深入。
摘要：Failure in food safety governance,which is caused by market failure,government failure and social co-governance failure and their interactions,is a typical case of social system failure.This paper analyzes the food safety regulation dilemma and its formation,and defines the concept of social system failure and its connotation.Three basic assumptions are proposed:firstly,market or government gov-ernance cannot solve the social system failure;secondly,social co-governance alone cannot solve the social system failure either;and thirdly,formal governance or informal governance alone cannot solve the social system failure.Based on the three assumptions,this paper puts forward a number of public policies and strategies,including formal governance policies such as policy frightening,punishing, and traceability system,informal governance policies such as risk communication,value reconfigura-tion and behavior reconfiguration,and the dynamic integration of formal and informal governance (e. g.mixed governance of information technology and institution arrangements).It is argued that the policies designed to deal with the social system failure can also work in industry policy governance, corruption governance and haze governance.This paper also proposes the governance of social system failure and offsetting rules based on the analyses.%市场失灵、政府失灵和社会共治失灵及其交互导致的食品安全治理失灵，是一种典型的社会系统失灵现象。针对这种现象，基于食品安全"监管困局"及其形成机制，定义社会系统失灵的概念和内涵，提出社会系统失灵的三个核心问题，即单纯依靠市场或政府治理不能解决社会系统失灵、单纯依靠社会共治不能解决社会系统失灵、单纯依靠正式或非正式治理不能解决社会系统失灵。在社会系统失灵三个核心问题基础上提出的解决社会系统失灵的公共政策方向及策略，包括震慑、惩罚与追溯等正式治理，风险交流、价值重构、重塑行为规则等非正式治理，及二者的动态混合治理，如信息技术与制度安排的混合治理等。对社会系统失灵的分析可以拓展到对产业政策治理、腐败治理和雾霾治理的分析中，提出社会系统失灵的治理与抵消性规则。
摘要：This paper investigates the influence of shared cluster resources on the inclusive growth of SMEs with the method of questionnaire.The empirical results indicate that shared cluster resources are the key determinants of inclusive growth of SMEs,and the institutional environment and the firm capability significantly moderate the influence.In addition to revealing the influence mechanism of shared cluster resources on the inclusive growth of SMEs,the research expounds the influence mecha-nism of the firm capability and the cluster's institutional environment on the inclusive growth of SMEs.%用问卷调查法对"集群共享性资源对中小企业包容性增长的作用机制"这一科学问题进行了研究。实证结果表明，集群共享性资源是影响中小企业包容性增长的重要决定因素，集群制度环境和企业能力是影响集群共享性资源和中小企业包容性增长关系的重要因素。研究结论揭示了集群共享性资源对中小企业包容性增长的影响作用，同时剖析了企业能力和集群制度环境对中小企业包容性增长的作用机理。
摘要：To investigate the agricultural logistics demand of Beijing,this paper builds a grey linear combination model by adopting the ant colony algorithm to find the weight of a single model with matlab and the GM(1,1)model.Based on the grey linear combination model,the paper predicts the demand of Beijing agricultural products logistics during the 13th Five-Year Plan.The results indicate that the agricultural products logistics demand of Beijing will increase steadily during the 13th Five-Year Plan.Therefore,it is argued that,in order to balance the supply and demand of Beij ing agricul-tural products logistics,the supply of agricultural products should be increased by improving the agri-cultural products logistics infrastructure construction,supporting the development of agricultural product logistics enterprises,and strengthening the government macro-control.The research also proves that the grey linear combination model shows a better fitting degree,evidently outweighing the other traditional models.%以北京市农产品物流需求为研究对象,采用灰色 GM(1,1)模型为基本方法,使用 Matlab 软件,借助蚁群算法求出了单个模型的权数,构建出灰色线性组合模型,对"十三五"时期北京市农产品的物流需求进行预测。研究发现：北京市农产品物流需求在"十三五"期间稳定增加。因此,要平衡"十三五"期间北京市农产品物流的供给与需求,应增加农产品物流的供给,即完善农产品物流基础设施建设、大力支持农产品物流企业的发展和政府加强宏观调控。预测的结果表明：灰色线性组合模型的拟合度较好,比其他传统方法有更高的预测精度。
摘要：As the communication of mainstream ideology,socialist core values communication is politi-cal communication in essence,and its political nature cannot be ignored.In other words,the advantage of political propaganda still needs to be taken.In practice,the characteristics of mainstream ideology must not be overlooked.Otherwise,the communication of socialist core values will only be confined to mass communication,which is out of focus.The effective communication strategies of socialist core values from the perspective of political communication are as follows.First,the communication process should be divided into different stages,in which different strategies are taken accordingly.Sec-ond,the multiple subj ects of socialist core values should play their role in the communication.Third, the discourse structure of socialist core values communication should be improved constantly in politi-cal practice.%作为主流意识形态的社会主义核心价值观的传播，其本质属性为政治传播，社会主义核心价值观传播的"政治"属性不能随意抹煞。因此，政治宣传的优势在其中仍然不可随意"丢弃"。在实际操作层面，不能忽略主流意识形态的特性，使社会主义核心价值观的传播规限于大众传播而"传播失焦"。要将社会主义核心价值观的传播，放置于政治传播中作整体安排，制定有效的传播策略：把社会主义核心价值观的传播过程"规制"为不同的阶段，在不同阶段实行不同策略；充分发挥社会主义核心价值观传播中的"多元主体"作用；在政治实践中不断改善社会主义核心价值观传播的话语结构。
摘要：根据交通外部性和非线性理论构建交通门槛模型，并基于1985-2012年中国省际面板数据，采用Hansen门槛效应的内生分组方法检验新常态下交通对中国经济增长质量的贡献。结果显示：新常态下交通对经济增长质量贡献略低于"旧常态"，但仍表现出区间"递增"趋势；把新常态下TFP分解为技术进步和技术效率，发现中密度地区要素配置结构已不适应技术进步的需要，高密度地区技术效率相对技术进步对经济增长质量的贡献较低；随着区间交通密度的增加，"政府干预经济"更有效率，但城市化和产业发展对经济增长质量贡献由正转负。为进一步提升新常态下交通对中国经济增长质量的贡献，应定向适度加大"中密度地区"交通投资力度，助其跳出"低增长陷阱"；借助信息化、智能化手段引领交通建设转型升级以提高经济运行效率；构建"交通-产业-城镇"三位一体的协同新型综合交通体系；协调好城市化与交通基础设施建设之间的关系。%Based on the traffic externalities and nonlinear theory,this paper constructs a traffic thresh-old model,and inspects the traffic's contribution to the economic growth quality of China by analyzing the provincial panel data from 1985 to 2012 with the method of endogenous grouping of Hansen threshold effect.The results reveal a meaningful findings.First,the traffic's contribution to the eco-nomic growth quality under the New Normal is slightly lower than the Old Normal,but there are still trends of interval increases.Second,under the New Normal,TFP is decomposed into technical pro-gress and technical efficiency.It is found that the factor's allocation structure in the medium density areas can't meet the requirement of the technological progress,and the contribution of the technical ef-ficiency to economic growth quality in the high density areas is relatively lower than that of the techni-cal progress.Third,with the increase of traffic density,the government intervention into the economy becomes more efficient,but the contribution of the urbanization and the industrial development to the economic growth quality turns from positive to negative.In order to strengthen the traffic's contribu-tion to the economic growth quality under the New Normal,it is proposed that directed transportation investments in the medium density areas should be enlarged to pull these areas out of the"low growth"trap.Fourth,the transportation construction should be upgraded via informatization and in-telligentization to improve the efficiency of the economic operation.Fifth,a new coordinated transpor-tation system of"traffic-industry-town"should be built.Last,the relationship between the urbaniza-tion and the transportation infrastructure construction should be coordinated.
摘要：With the structural equation model,this paper studies partners,cooperative environment, and public products supply of PPP proj ects and their interrelationship.A number of empirical findings are revealed.First,the cooperative environment,partners,and public involvement exert a considera-ble influence on the supply of public products;second,a favorable cooperative environment and be-nign public involvement contribute to the sustainability of PPP partnership and proj ect supply;third, the policy advantages and resources of the public sector are the prerequisite for maintaining the part-nership.It is argued that partnership is based on the balanced mutual dependence,which is established in organizations'exchanging resources.The government can promote the effective supply of public products and strengthen the quality of partnership by enhancing the construction of cooperative envi-ronment and raising public involvement.%运用结构方程建模的方法对我国城市基础设施 PPP 项目伙伴主体、公众参与、合作环境以及公共产品供给的相互关系进行实证研究。研究表明：伙伴主体、合作环境和公众参与对公共产品供给具有重要影响；良好的合作环境和公众参与，将促进PPP 伙伴主体及 PPP 项目供给的可持续；公共部门的政策优势与资源禀赋是PPP伙伴关系维系的必要条件。PPP伙伴关系是组织间交换资源形成平衡的依赖关系，政府加强合作环境建设与引导公众参与必然推进公共产品有效供给，从而提升PPP伙伴主体之间合作的关系质量。
摘要：持续经营审计意见能够反映公司经营状况和预测未来业绩，其在资本市场的重要作用得到理论界和学术界的广泛认可与关注。对国内外有关持续经营审计意见的相关研究进行回顾和评述：从审计师专业胜任能力、审计师独立性和审计环境多方面产生的影响因素，持续经营审计意见的信息含量及其经济后果三个方面，提炼现有文献的观点、研究不足以及未来研究的方向。可为我国学者提供关于持续经营审计意见的前沿研究资料和未来研究指引，也对监管机构、上市公司和注册会计师等具有重要启发意义。%Going concern opinions can reflect a company's operating conditions and predict its future performance.The importance of going concern opinions in capital market has been widely recognized in academic fields.Based on a review of the relevant research of going concern opinions both at home and abroad,this paper summarizes the maj or views and weaknesses of the existing literature and pro-poses some directions for future study from several perspectives,namely,the information content and the economic consequences of going concern opinions,and the influencing factors of auditor's profes-sional competence,auditor independence and audit environment.It is believed that this paper has sketched the frontier of the current researches and the direction for future studies,and therefore is of significance to the regulators,listed companies,and CPAs.
摘要：The industrial integration of Jing-Jin-Ji is designed to promote the overall regional interests by considering the overall development of the industries and forming a reasonable industry layout to finally achieve a coordinated development of the regions.The current industrial integration mainly fo-cuses on industrial transfer in order to relieve the non-capital functions of Beij ing,which mainly de-pends on the policy planning and intervention by the government.Policy making and enforcing plays a significant role in promoting the regional industrial integration,but there are also limitations.Since legislation-guided reform has become the basic policy of our country,and since Jing-Jin-Ji industrial integration is an important reform concerning the regional and national development,it is necessary to establish a legislation leading model.It is argued that the three regions should formulate regulations of regional industrial integration development as the basic law of the coordinated development of regional industries,modify and/or abolish timely the local regulations that do not suit the"basic law",so as to promote Jing-Jin-Ji industrial integration with sound strategies and benign laws.%京津冀产业一体化是从区域整体利益出发考虑产业发展，合理进行产业布局，实现区域产业的协同发展。目前的产业一体化主要表现为产业转移，以疏解北京非首都核心功能，因而主要依赖于政策的规划和干预。政策在推进京津冀产业一体化中发挥了显著的作用，但也具有局限性。立法指引改革已成为我国的治国方略。京津冀产业一体化是关涉区域与国家发展的重大改革，需要立法的引领。应制定区域一体化发展条例作为引领区域产业协调发展的基本法，及时修改和废除不适应基本法的地方规定，通过善法良策的共同作用实现京津冀产业的一体化。