我国物流产业与经济增长关系的实证研究

摘要

In this paper, the authors used the annual data from 1991 to 2011 to make an empirical research on the relationship between logistics and economic growth in China. Three main factors that affect logistics capabilities are found, namely Logistics Foundations, Industrial Structure and Market, among 18 factors through a principal component analysis. On this basis, we performed Granger Causality and Co-Integration Tests to investigate the long term relationship among these three factors and economic growth. And we established a stable VAR model to verify the short term revision effects. What’s more, we adjusted the fuzzy “Logistics and Economic Growth” model with empirical results from the Granger Causality Test to show the way that logistics promotes the economic growth and vice versa. Finally, relevant policy recommendations are provided.%从影响物流能力要素的角度，利用1991年至2011年之间的经济数据对“物流产业”与“经济增长”之间的关系进行实证分析。通过对指标数据进行主成分分析，得出影响物流能力的三个因素为：基础因素、结构因素、市场因素。在此基础上，依据调整后的因素指标数据进行协整分析，得出三因素与经济增长之间具有长期均衡关系，且基础因素、结构因素与经济增长正相关。同时，通过 VAR 模型的建立分析了三因素与经济增长之间的短期互动关系，并依据格兰杰因果检验结果对“物流与经济增长”模糊模型进行调整，细化了物流产业与经济增长之间的互动过程。最后，根据实证分析结果，从基础建设、优化结构、产业联动三方面给出相关政策建议。