基于累积前景理论的服务衍生方案决策

摘要

In the context of constant integration of manufacturing and service industries, an urgent problem of manufacturing companies is how to expand service activities relying on the existing superior manufactur-ing resources, solving service-oriented manufacturing.On the basis of the relevant literature review, the process of solutions for generating service derivative is portrayed.The evaluative index system of service derivative solutions, which embodies the characteristics of service-oriented manufacturing, is constructed. The evaluation of service derivative solutions is based on the cumulative prospect theory.The analysis of example results shows that evaluation index system considers the three comprehensive factors, which are the physical products, supply and demand behavior and services provided, to ensure service derivative so-lutions more effectively adapting to the overall coordination of customer behavior and coordination in and out of the system.The cumulative prospect theory can support the evaluation of solutions for generating service derivative.The research conclusions provide theoretical guidance for the decision-making of service derivative in service-oriented manufacturing.%在梳理与服务型制造相关文献的基础上,刻画了服务衍生方案生成过程;构建了体现服务型制造特征的服务衍生方案评价指标体系;基于累积前景理论评价服务衍生方案.算例结果表明:考虑实物产品—供需行为—服务提供三方面综合因素的评价指标体系,能够确保服务衍生方案更有效地适应客户行为以及系统内外的整体协调,累积前景理论能够支持服务衍生方案的评价.研究结论为服务型制造企业服务衍生决策提供理论指导.