税收政策调整对居民消费和就业的动态效应研究

摘要

This article introduces the direct taxes of consumption tax and value-added tax , and the indirect taxes of cap-ital gains tax , labor income tax and enterprise income tax into the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model , and uses the Bayes Estimation method to measure the dynamic parameters .In this paper , we attempt to analyze the impacts of these types of taxes on household consumption , employment and household consumption rate .We find significant difference among these taxes in their effects.Reducing the resident's consumption tax can not only stimulate consumer spending and consumption , but also increase the employment .The three types of direct taxes have identical influence on resident's consumption and consump-tion rate, all having certain negative effect on the former and positive effect on the latter , but their role is different in regard to employment.Capital gains tax stimulates the growth of employment while labor income tax and enterprise income tax weaken the resident's enthusiasm of seeking employment .%在动态随机一般均衡（ DSGE ）框架下，引入居民消费税（包括消费税和增值税）等间接税种以及资本利得税、劳动所得税和企业所得税等直接税种，并采用贝叶斯估计方法，分别分析四类税收政策对居民消费、消费率与就业的影响机制。研究结果表明，不同税种对三者的影响存在较大差异：降低居民消费税等间接税不仅能够刺激居民消费和消费率，同时也会增加就业；三类直接税种对居民消费、消费率的影响是一致的，均对居民消费有一定的负面作用，对消费率产生正向影响，而对就业的作用有所不同，资本利得税对就业水平的提升有积极作用，劳动所得税和企业所得税削弱了居民的就业积极性。