从全国和区域两个层面对我国农村社保支出与农村居民消费的关系进行实证检验。先选取1978－2011年的时间序列数据，采用可变参数状态空间模型分析社会保障制度变迁对我国农村居民消费的总体影响，接下来选取1995－2011年的省际数据，采用动态面板数据模型分析社保支出对农村居民消费的区域效应。研究表明，我国农村社会保障制度处于不断调整的动态平衡之中，社会保障支出总体上对农村居民消费起到了挤入作用，但对消费的拉动作用存在着明显的区域性差异。% Based on the data of national and regional levels , this paper does empirical analysis on the relations between the social security expenditure and the rural consumption in China .By the State Space Model with variable parameter analysis using the time series of national data in 1978-2011, it is showed that since the Chinese Economic Reform the overall impact of the social security system on the rural residents'consumption is notable.And, by the analysis of dynamic panel model using 1995-2011 provincial data of China, the regional social security expenditure has a crowding-in effect on rural residents'con-sumption and has improved the rural residential consumption in the long run .Because of the different levels of economic devel-opment in the east, central and west areas of China , the effects of social security expenditure on rural consumption are obvi-ously different, which shows that the regional policy is needed during the development of social security system in China .
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