甘肃省流感流行预警方法探研

摘要

Objective To explore the appropriate early warning method for influenza epidemic in Gansu province.Methods By using simple control chart,moving percentile method,exponential smoothing method and cumulative sum control chart method,the annual incidence data of influenza-like illness in Gansu province during 2014-2015 were analyzed,and the sensitivities,specificities,positive predictive values,Jorden indexes and Kappa values of the 4 methods were evaluated and compared.Results The 2014-2015 seasonal influenza epidemic occurred in the fiftieth week of 2014 in Gansu,and the epidemic peak lasted for 6 weeks.Cumulative sum control chart method had the best early warning effect with the sensitivity of 66.67％ and specificity of 93.48％.Conclusion It is feasible to use cumulative sum control chart method to give early warning of influenza epidemic in Gansu.%目的 探索适合甘肃省流感流行的预警方法.方法 分别用简单控制图法、移动百分位数法、指数平滑法及累积和控制图法对2014-2015年度甘肃省流感样病例监测数据进行预警分析,结合灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值、约登指数、Kappa值等指标,比较和评价4种方法的预警效果.结果 2014-2015年度甘肃省流感流行高峰起始时间为2014年第50周,流行高峰持续6周.4种预警方法中以累积和控制图法预警效果最优,能及时发出预警信号,灵敏度及特异度分别为66.67％和93.48％.结论 累积和控制图法适合甘肃省流感流行高峰预警.