[目的]农户土地流转对农民增收、 农业产业结构调整以及治理流域的面源污染问题具有重要意义;为了高效利用洱海流域土地资源,急需探究农户土地流转意愿主要影响因素.[方法]基于云南省大理州395个农户调查数据,运用Logistic模型对农户参与洱海流域土地转出意愿进行了实证研究.[结果](1)49.87%的农户愿意参与洱海流域上游的土地转出,高出全国17.8%的土地转出比例,且越年轻或越年长的农户越愿意流转土地;(2)户主的年龄、 对过量使用农药化肥的危害认知和对国家土地流转政策的态度3个因素对农户的土地转出意愿影响非常显著(P<0.01)且呈正相关.影响程度大小依次为:农户对国家土地流转政策的态度>农户对过量使用农药化肥的危害认知>户主的年龄;(3)性别、 户主学历、家庭年收入、 非农业收入、 务农劳动力、 耕地规模和有机肥使用情况等变量对农户的土地流转.[结论]最终提出有利于洱海流域上游农户进行土地流转的农业政策建议.%Farmland transfer research is of great practical importance to increase farmers'income, optimize agricultural industry structure and control non-point source pollution in agriculture. It was therefore necessary to explore the main factors influencing farmers'willingness of land transfer so as to improve the land use efficiency. Based on a face-to-face questionnaire survey with 395 farmers in the Erhai basin in Yunnan province, using the Logistic model, this paper analyzed the influencing factors of land transfer willingness. The results showed that 49. 87 % of surveyed farmers would like to transfer land in Erhai basin, which was higher than 17. 8% of national land transfer rate. The young or old farmers were more willing to transfer land. The factors, such as age of householder, cognition on adverse environmental effects of excessive use of agricultural chemicals and the attitude toward the national farmland transfer policy, had a significant positive impact on the willingness of land transfer, which ranked as follows:X10 >X8 >X2 . But for the 10 variables of the regression model, other 7 factors including gender, educational level, annual family income, non-farm income, family labor force, arable land size, and the use of organic fertilizer had no significant impact. Finally, policy recommendations were put forward to promote and speed up the farm-land transfer in the upstream of Erhai basin in Yunnan province.
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