基于排队论的电动汽车电池回收建模与仿真研究

摘要

本文基于排队论理论,从仿真的角度,对电池回收系统中的主要对象电动汽车、电池以及电动汽车和电池匹配进行模拟,应用Anylogic仿真平台,搭建电动汽车电池回收的排队论模型,进而分析电动汽车和电池生产速率、电动汽车和电池寿命、电池更新次数以及电池翻新率等因素对报废车比例、报废电池比例以及汽车重复使用电池比例的影响程度.研究获得以下主要结论:电池生产速率在区间[1,2]变化对结果影响最大,报废车比例迅速下降约10％,其它指标则平均增加5％；电动汽车和电池按照1∶4的比例进行生产,系统处于最优状态；电池寿命在区间[12,24]之间变化对结果影响最明显,报废电池比例降12％左右,其它指标则平均增加4％左右；电池更新次数在区间[1,2]变化,报废电池比例会迅速下降15％,随着电池更新次数的继续增加,报废电池比例会缓慢下降,直到更新次数为4的时候,系统处于最优；当翻新率从0.5增加到0.9时候,报废电池比例会从70％迅速下降到16％左右,二/三/四手电池使用比例,则从43％、17％、6％分别提高到78％、31％、11％左右,几乎都是提高了一倍.因素对对仿真结果的影响程度,会受到电池和汽车的相对寿命RL的约束.最后文章提出,根据RL合理安排电动汽车和电池的生产速率以及科学计算电池翻新次数,重视技术的投入产出分析和提高电池翻新率等政策建议.%Based on Queuing theory and Anylogic platform,it does simulation for cars,batteries and car-battery matching,which are all the main objects in the electric vehicle battery recycling system; then,queuing model of battery recycling is built.And lastly,it analyzes the influence that electric vehicle/battery production rate,electric vehicle/battery lifetime,battery renovation times and battery renovation rate have on recycling.Some important conclusions are obtained:When battery production rate changes in the interval [1,2],the results fluctuate greatly,the proportion of scrapped cars decline about 10％ rapidly,and there are an average increase of 5％ for other indicators.System is optimal if vehicle and battery are produced in accordance with a ratio of 1 ∶ 4.When battery lifetime changes in the interval [12,24],the results fluctuate greatly,the proportion of wasted battery decreases about 12％ largely,and there are an average increase of 4％ for other indicators.When battery renovation times changes in the interval [1,2],the proportion of wasted battery decreased by about 15％ rapidly.If the battery renovation times continue to be increased,the proportion of wasted battery will decrease slowly,and the system is optimal until the times are increased to 4.When the renovation rate increases from 0.5 to0.9,the proportion of wasted batteries will decline from 70％ to 16％ sharply,and the proportion of reused battery rises from 43％,17％ and 6％ to 78％,31％ and 11％ respectively,which almost increases 100％.The influence of parameters on simulation results depends on the relative life (RL) of the battery and the vehicle greatly.Finally,the paper proposes to organize electric vehicle and battery production ratio reasonably and to compute renovation times scientifically according to the RL,to pay attention to the input-output analysis of technology investment,and to improve battery renovation rate,et al.