基于 Logit 模型的私家车出行影响因素分析

摘要

文章旨在分析影响人们出行需求及行为的因素，并寻找其内在的规律性。在进行大量数据调查及分析的基础上，通过SPSS软件运用Logistic回归模型分析得出相关影响因素，并对相关影响因素进行分析，得出动态交通信息服务在一定程度上能够决定私家车出行路线选择，交通信息发布的实时性和准确性有待进一步提高，而且出行者更不愿意遇到交通事故或交通拥堵。通过分析动态交通信息背景下出行者交通出行行为的变化趋势，可以更好的缓解北京的交通拥堵情况。%The purpose of this paper is to analyze what factors were influencing people's travel demand and behavior , and find its inherent regularity.Based on a large amount of data investigations and analyses , and using the SPSS software and the Logistic Regression model , the related factors influencing traveler behavior are derived and analyzed .It has been concluded that the dynamic traffic information service decides the choice of the private car travel route to a certain ex-tent, the accuracy and real-time performance of released traffic information need to be further improved , and travelers are more reluctant to encounter a traffic accident or traffic jams .Through analysis of how to more effectively change travelers ’ behavior in the background of dynamic traffic information ,we can better alleviate traffic congestion in Beijing .