航材备件的需求预测已成为装备综合保障领域研究的难点.主要对各部件寿命分布类型进行归纳与总结,建立多数零件服从寿命分布类型的需求预测模型,并对军机执行任务这一特殊情况建立了战损备件预测模型.以可靠性数据为研究基础,对正态分布、指数分布、威布尔分布等备件进行分类分析,根据实际情况逐步精确备件保障概率的取值.计算结果表明,方法能给出合理的备件保障概率和备件需求预测结果.%The demand forecast of spare parts for aviation materials has become the difficulty of the re-search of equipment comprehensive security field .In this paper ,the life distribution types of each compo-nent are summarized and summarized ,the demand forecasting model of most parts to obey the life distri-bution type is established ,and the prediction model of warfare spare parts for the special situation of mili-tary mission is established .Based on the reliability data ,the classification of the normal distribution ,expo-nential distribution ,Weibull distribution and so on is classified according to the actual situation ,and the precision of the spare parts is determined according to the actual situation .The results show that the method can give reasonable results of spare parts protection and spare parts demand forecast.
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