基于约束调度的消耗性航材备件需求预测分析

摘要

In view of the fact that the traditional demand forecasting method for spare parts of aircraft materials neglects the acquisition of demand constrained scheduling conditions, which leads to low efficiency and high cost of demand forecasting for spare parts of aircraft materials, a new demand forecasting method for consumable spare parts of aircraft materials based on constrained demand forecasting is proposed and tested. Assuming that the reserve density of a consumable spare parts satisfies Poisson distribution, the timely support probability of the consumable spare parts is calculated. According to the annual turnover of aircraft materials, the total reserves required for different turnover parts are calculated to obtain the total timely guarantee rate. The constrained dispatching condition is given. The constrained dispatching and the minimum cost of demand forecasting are used as the objective function to construct the demand forecasting model of consumable spare parts for aviation materials. The genetic algorithm is used to solve the model and obtain the optimal demand forecasting result. By comparing with other methods, it is found that the proposed method has high accuracy, high efficiency and can meet the emergency requirements.%针对传统航材备件需求预测方法忽略了对需求约束调度条件的获取, 导致对航材备件的需求预测效率较低、成本偏高, 提出一种新的基于约束需求预测的消耗性航材备件需求预测方法, 并进行试验分析.假设某消耗性航材备件的储备量分布密度满足泊松分布, 计算该消耗性航材备件及时保障概率.依据航材的年周转量, 求出不同周转件所需总储备量, 以获取总及时保障率.给出需求约束调度条件, 将约束调度和需求预测成本最小作为目标函数构造消耗性航材备件需求预测模型, 通过遗传算法对其进行求解, 获取最优需求预测结果.将其他方法作为对比进行试验, 发现所提方法需求预测准确率高, 效率最高, 且可达到应急要求.