基于风险情景意识评估的跑道入侵风险防控

摘要

For the effective prevention and control to the runway incursion risk,using STPA,Early Warn-ing Sign Analysis based on the STPA and Rogers-Tanimoto Dissimilarity Measurethe,the paper makes a assessment for system risk situation awareness of runway operation system dynamically in terms of runway incursion based on different duty time of tower controller,and models the system risk situation awareness error evolution,finally proposes runway incursion risk prevention and control based on assessment of sys-tem risk situation awareness.It turns out that the method can be used for monitoring,alerting and risk pre-vention and control of runway incursion,it also provide the theoretical principle for safety nets of runway incursion.%为有效对跑道入侵进行风险防控,采用系统理论的过程分析(STPA)、基于STPA的早期告警信号分析及Rogers-Tanimoto差异度测量方法,根据塔台管制员不同任务时序,面向跑道入侵对跑道运行系统的系统风险情景意识进行动态化评估,建立系统风险情景意识差错演化模型,提出基于系统风险情景意识评估的跑道入侵风险防控.通过案例分析,结果表明方法可用于跑道入侵的监控、预警及风险防控,为跑道入侵安全防护网的研究提供了理论基础.