基于环境因素的机场跑道入侵风险评价

摘要

Along with the increase of airport traffic, runway incursion events are increasing rapidly, which have severely affected the airport security, so the evaluation of runway incursion risk is most significant. The environmental factors were divided into direct environment factors and indirect environment factors. An index system was proposed for the risk assessment of runway incursion. Based on the direct environment factors, a runway incursion risk grade assessment suggested value system was established. Risk multipliers were introduced to present the influence of the indirect environment factors. Then a runway incursion risk assessment model was established by using non-linear extension method. Finally, through the case analysis, the feasibility of the assessment method was verified.%　　随着机场交通量的增大，跑道入侵事件迅速增加，已严重影响到了机场安全，因此，对跑道入侵进行风险评价显得尤为重要。首先将影响跑道入侵的环境因素分为直接环境因素和间接环境因素，建立了跑道入侵风险评价指标体系。基于直接环境因素建立了跑道入侵风险等级评价建议值体系。引入风险系数对评价指标的取值进行处理，将间接环境因素对跑道入侵的影响通过直接环境因素体现出来。然后应用非线性可拓综合评价法建立跑道入侵风险评价模型。最后通过实例分析，验证了该评价方法的可行性。