Analysis of Runway Incursion in Civil Airport Based on Bayesian Network

摘要

At present, runway incursions have the greatest impact on runway safety, and itis also the most frequent cause of flight incidents. In order to prevent incidents ofrunway incursion, and to find the factors that induce these incidents, a BayesianNetwork (BN) model is used to explore the relationship and interaction mechanismamong those factors that cause runway incursion. It overcomes deficiencies attributedto the limitation of the sample capacity, and reveals the interaction law among human,aircraft, environment and management factors. It will provide a reliable technique toscientifically improve airport safety management, and further reduce accident rates.