基于耕地因素分解的浙江省粮食生产变化研究

摘要

To understand the trends of grain production in Zhejiang Province , wave theory was adopted to study the grain output during 1978-2015 , and LMDI approach was introduced to decompose the factors of cultivated land use which influenced grain production .It was shown that grain production in Zhejiang increased first , then reduced and was tended to be stable .The production fluctuation was narrowed , yet cyclical characteristics still existed .The in-crease of yield per hectare was the major factor to increase grain production , while the adjustment of planting struc-ture, the reduction of multiple-crop index and cultivated land resources led to the decrease of grain production .The dominant factor to the grain production differed among cities .The decrease of multiple-crop index was the main factor for yield reduction in Taizhou , Shaoxing , Ningbo and Zhoushan , while the structure adjustment was the main factor for the rest cities.%为了解浙江省近年来粮食产量趋势,采用波动理论研究1978—2015年浙江省的粮食产量周期特征,并运用LMDI方法对影响粮食产量的耕地利用因素进行分解.结果表明,浙江省粮食产量呈现先升高再长期波动下降然后逐步稳定的态势,波动幅度在收窄,周期性波动特征依然存在.单产提高是粮食增产的主要途径,复种指数降低、种植业结构调整和耕地资源减少导致浙江省粮食总产下降.影响浙江各地市粮食生产变化的主导因子略有不同,复种指数降低是台州、宁波、绍兴、舟山粮食生产减退的首要因子,结构调整是其他地区粮食生产减退的首要因子.