西北五省农业碳排放测算及碳减排潜力研究

摘要

碳减排潜力及潜在规模的测算作为制定减排政策和碳交易市场政策的前提.基于种植业活动、畜牧养殖、农田土壤和秸秆焚烧4个方面23类碳源,测算西北五省1995-2014年农业碳排放量,并进行时空差异分析.在此基础上,构建环境效率评估模型(SBM模型)求解目标函数最优值,并以此测算出西北五省农业碳减排潜力指数.结果表明:1995-2014年,陕西、甘肃、青海、新疆、宁夏农业碳排放量的年均增长率分别为1.71%、4.14%、-0.09%、3.77%、4.06%;相应的碳排放强度年均增长率分别为-9.08%、-5.57%、-9.94%、-6.57%、-7.14%;空间差异明显,碳排放量新疆>陕西>甘肃>宁夏>青海,新疆为青海的4.61倍;碳排放强度青海>宁夏>甘肃>新疆>陕西,陕西仅为青海的11/25;近20年,西北五省农业碳减排潜力省域差异明显,青海碳减排潜力高于其他四省,其次为新疆、宁夏、甘肃、陕西,其中陕西、宁夏碳减排潜力呈波动下降趋势,甘肃、青海、新疆碳减排潜力呈波动增加趋势.最后为西北五省制定相应的农业碳减排政策和减排补偿机制提供参考性建议.%The measurement of the potential of carbon emission reduction and potential scale is the prerequisite for the development of emission reduction policies and carbon trading market policies.In this study,based on 23 carbon sources from planting activities,animal husbandry,farmland soil and straw burning 23 kinds the agricultural carbon emission in the five provinces in Northwest China from 1995 to 2014 was calculated,and the temporal and spatial difference was analysed.On this basis,the environmental efficiency evaluation model(SBM model)was established to find out the optimal value of the objective function,and to calculate the potential index of the agricaltrual carbon emission induction the five provinces in Northwest China.The results showed:the average annual growth rates from 1995 to 2014 in Shaanxi,Gansu,Qinghai,Xinjiang,Ningxia agricultural carbon emissions were 1.71%,4.14%,-0.09%,3.77% and 4.06% respectively;and the average annual growth rates of the corresponding emission intensity were-9.08%,-5.57%,-9.94%,-6.57% and-7.14% respectively;the spatial difference was obvious,the order of carbon emission was Xinjiang>Shaanxi>Gansu>Ningxia>Qinghai,the carbon emission of Xinjiang was 4.61 times tha of Qinghai;the order of carbon emission intensity was Qinghai>Ningxia>Gansu>Xinjiang>Shaanxi,the emission tensity of Shaanxi was only 11/25 of that of Qinghai;in 20 years,the difference in the reduction potential of agricultural carbon emission was obvious among the five provinces in Northwest China.The carbon emission reduction potential of Qinghai was higher than that of the other four provinces,followed by Xinjiang,Ningxia,Gansu,Shaanxi,Shaanxi;the carbon emission reduction potential of Ningxia and Shaanxi showed a downward trend,Gansu,and that of Qinghai,Xinjiang showed an increasing trend.Finally,the five provinces in the northwest to develop appropriate agricultural carbon emission reduction policies,emission reduction mechanisms of cooperation and compensation mechanism to provide a reference.