Nonparametric Models for the Regional Precipitation Evolution in Dobrudja

摘要

To describe the precipitation evolution in Dobrudja - a region situated in the South - East of Romania - the mean annual precipitation have been collected from 1965 to 2005, at ten hydro-meteorological stations. To determine the influence of geographical positions of the hydro-meteorological stations on the precipitation variability, the statistical analysis of these time series was performed. Most series behave quite similarly, indicating that the evolution is linked to large - scale rather than to local processes. Tukey and Sheffe's tests reveal possible grouping of homogenous data station. Different methods were used to fit the precipitation evolution in entire region, ignoring the possible groups or considering them. The results were compared. The best fit was obtained by using local linear smoothing.