Time-variant rule-based reliability of corroded structures by Monte Carlo simulation

摘要

General widespread corrosion is of increasing concern for structural reliability of ageing marine structures, particularly for semi-submersible pontoons. Conditional failure rate, also termed hazard function is sought to describe the increasing maintenance required with age. Literature is reviewed connecting corrosion degradation to hazard rate, either through a time degrading limit state function, or statistical data for time to failure. Here, a rule based failure definition is applied based on corrosion tolerance levels, together with a linear corrosion degradation model to make a time variant limit state function. Monte Carlo simulation is applied based on statistical models for the basic variables including importance sampling, to obtain the time to failure distribution from which the hazard curve is deduced. A more realistic hazard function is also produced, requiring average of 3 simulations to exceed the tolerance in order to fail. It is seen that this approach delays the increase of the hazard curve, at the expense of higher failure rates.