基于Monte Carlo的行程时间可靠性研究

摘要

从分析行程时间可靠性的概念及其重要性入手,提出了路段、路径、OD对以及系统行程时间可靠性的定量计算方法.在路段通行能力随机变化的条件下,基于Monte Carlo仿真建立了行程时间可靠性的求解算法.考虑到行程时间可靠性与出行者路径选择的相互作用,该方法将基于行程时间可靠性的交通分配纳入到行程时间可靠性的评价之中.用一个简单算例进行测试,结果表明该方法能够对行程时间可靠性进行合理评定.%In this paper, the concept and importance of travel time reliability were firstly presented, and then the quantitative calculation method of travel time reliability was proposed for links, routes, OD pairs and the system. Considering link capacity as an random variable, the travel time reliability was calculated using Monte Carlo simulation method. Because of the interaction between travel time reliability and travelers' route choice behavior, traffic assignment under uncertain network conditions was taken into account during the calculation of travel time reliability. In the end, a simple example was used to evaluate the method and the results show that the method has a reasonable perfprmance.