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Study of the Gray-Markov Chain Method on Guangxi LogisticsDemand Forecast

机译:广西物流业的灰色马尔可夫链法研究需求预测

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摘要

Scientific prediction is necessary to study economic phenomena and make economic decisions. Moreover, regional logistics demand forecast in regional logistics planning and decision-making is based on the premise of scientific and rational logistics demand forecasting method, which is particularly important. This article combines the Gray Prediction Method GM (1, 1) and Markov Prediction Method and puts forward the Gray-Markov Method. Firstly, a GM (1, 1) model chain is built. Secondly, on the basis of the GM (1, 1), Markov chain is applied to achieve state transition probability matrix. Lastly, through the division of the system state, analysis and calculation of the deviation between the sample value and the model value, predicted values are expressed in the form of probability and interval. The improved gray - Markov chain forecasting method is used in Guangxi logistics demand forecast subsequently. It shows gray - Markov chain forecasting approach is more accurate and reliable for policy makers.
机译:科学预测对于研究经济现象和做出经济决策是必要的。而且,在区域物流规划与决策中区域物流需求预测是在科学合理的物流需求预测方法的前提下进行的,这一点尤为重要。本文将灰色预测方法GM(1,1)与马尔可夫预测方法相结合,提出了灰色马尔可夫方法。首先,建立了GM(1,1)模型链。其次,在GM(1,1)的基础上,应用马尔可夫链获得状态转移概率矩阵。最后,通过系统状态的划分,样本值与模型值之间的偏差的分析和计算,以概率和区间的形式表示预测值。改进的灰色-马尔可夫链预测方法在广西物流需求预测中得到了应用。它显示出灰色-马尔可夫链预测方法对于决策者而言更为准确和可靠。

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