Short Term Wind Power Forecast Error Analysis Using Statistical Methods --- A Study of the Reduction of the Regional Aggregated Wind Power Forecast Error by Spatial Smoothing Effects in the Maritimes.

摘要

This research validated that regional short term aggregated wind power forecast errors could be reasonably reduced with the "spatial smoothing effects" in the Maritimes. To validate the spatial smoothing effects in general conditions, the proposed method builds an aggregated wind power forecast error simulator, a second-degree multi-variable polynomial, to model all of possible allocation schemes for total simulated wind power. Using the aggregated wind power forecast error simulator is new in the validation of spatial smoothing effects as this method is not mentioned anywhere in the literature. Moreover, this research utilized the minimization of the second-degree multi-variable polynomial to validate the spatial smoothing effects.;This research provides the electric utility a method to reduce the regional short term wind power forecast errors. Furthermore, it can help the utility to optimize the operation of wind turbines at individual wind sites in an electric power system.