基于灰色马尔可夫链的长江经济带物流需求预测研究

摘要

Whether from the perspective of opening up to the integration of customs clearance,or from the perspective of east Midwest industrial transfer,development of the Yangtze river economic belt is one of the important strategic moves to connect the regions of the eastern,the central and the western.Integration of the modern logistics is a key link to achieve industrial synergy of the Yangtze river economic belt.At present,the Yangtze river economic belt has become a research hot spot,but the study of the Yangtze river economic belt logistics demand forecasting is relatively few.In this paper,we choosing the logistics demand of in the Yangtze river economic belt as research object,and using the Grey Markov chain combination method to forecast.Grey GM (1,1 )model was used to match,then the Markov chain was used to improve the predictive value.The development trend of the Yangtze river economic belt of logistics demand is forecasted which can provide some reference to the relevant departments of the decision -making.%无论是从对外开放通关一体化的角度，还是从东中西部产业转移的角度，发展长江经济带是实现东中西部连接的重要战略举措。建立一体化的现代物流是实现长江经济带沿江产业协同的关键环节。当前，长江经济带已成为研究的热点，但对长江经济带物流需求预测的研究还相对较少。文中就以长江经济带的物流需求为研究对象，运用灰色马尔可夫链组合方法进行预测，先运用灰色 GM（1，1）模型进行拟合，然后运用马尔可夫链对预测值进行改进，并且针对长江经济带的物流需求状况的发展趋势进行了预测，其研究结果可以给相关部门的决策提供一定的参考。