SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM FORECASTING SYSTEMS WITH ENHANCED PREDICTION ACCURACY

摘要

The present invention provides a short term weather forecaster for nowcasting using a Numerical Weather Predictor (NWP). The system of the present invention tracks the evolution of differences between NWP and radar based precipitation patterns and adjusts the NWP forecast to account for theses differences. These differences are due to amplitude and phase errors of the NWP, such as model misses, false alarms, intensity errors and position errors. In presuming persistency in time of these errors and in estimating precipitation pattern time evolution due to other weather conditions such as wind motion, the present system corrects the NWP short term predicted patterns to compensate for these errors, thus enhancing nowcasting accuracy.