Methodology for Short Term Forecasting for Demand Prediction and Renewable Energy in Electrical Distribution Systems

摘要

The main objective of this work is the development of a short-term prediction methodology based on time series, for electricity demand and renewable generation (solar photovoltaic and wind) in Electrical Distribution Systems, using the HoltWinters prediction technique for make the forecasts. The methodology developed was applied to a test system, obtaining good results both for electricity demand and for renewable generation, which makes it a technique applicable to real systems, with varied applications such as service restoration processes.