Power generation amount prediction device, power generation amount prediction method, system stabilization device, and system stabilization method

摘要

To calculate the prediction of the power generation amount with high accuracy even when the amount of the track record data of the generator power generation amount is insufficient or the amount of the weather track record data similar to the weather prediction result is small. A power generation amount prediction apparatus for predicting a power generation amount at a power plant that performs power generation by use of renewable energy, including: a model generation unit that generates a mathematical model of the power generation amount of the power plant in regard to each model generation time based on a weather track record and an output power track record in regard to the power plant; a similar track record data extraction unit that obtains a weather track record similar to weather prediction data and a corresponding output power track record as similar track record data; a model accuracy calculation unit that calculates accuracy of each of a plurality of mathematical models of the model generation unit in a weather condition similar to the weather prediction data; a model selection unit that selects a mathematical model to be used for the prediction by using the accuracy of each of the models; and a model output power prediction unit that predicts the power generation amount of the power plant by using the selected mathematical model.