This paper uses detailed individual register data to identify the causal effect of mandatorypeacetime military conscription in Sweden on the lives of young men born in the 1970s and 80s. Because draftees are positively selected into service based on their draft board testperformance, our primary identification strategy uses the random assignment of potentialconscripts to draft board officiators who have relatively high or low tendencies to placedraftees into service in an instrumental variable framework. We find that military servicesignificantly increases post-service crime (overall and across multiple crime categories)between ages 23 and 30. These results are driven primarily by young men with pre-servicecriminal histories and who come from low socioeconomic status households. Though we find evidence of an incapacitation effect concurrent with conscription, it is unfortunately not enough to break a cycle of crime that has already begun prior to service. Analyses of labormarket outcomes tell similar post-service stories: individuals from disadvantagedbackgrounds have significantly lower income, and are more likely to receive unemploymentand welfare benefits, as a result of service, while service significantly increases income anddoes not impact welfare and unemployment for those at the other end of the distribution.Finally, we provide suggestive evidence that peer effects may play an important role inexplaining the unintended negative impacts of military service.
展开▼
