We present an algorithm for optimal guidance of users in road networks. It isa "stochastic-on-time-arrival (SOTA)"-like algorithm which calculates optimalguidance strategies with reliable paths, for road network origin-destinationpairs. Our contribution consists here in extending an existing SOTA algorithm,in order to include robustness of the guidance strategy, towards path failures.The idea of SOTA algorithms is to calculate the maximum probability of reachinga destination node, starting from any node of a road network, and given a timebudget. This calculus gives the optimal path for every origin-destination pairof nodes in the network, with an associated optimal adaptive guidance strategy.We propose here an extension of this approach in order to take into account theexistence and the performance of alternative detours of the selected paths, inthe calculus of the guidance strategy. We take into account the fact that oneor many links of the selected optimal path may fail during the travel. We thenconsider that users may be sensitive to path changing. That is to say that theymay prefer paths with efficient alternative detours, with respect to pathswithout, or with less efficient detours, even with a loss in the average traveltime, and/or in its reliability. In order to take into account such behaviors,we propose a model that includes the existence as well as the performance ofdetours for selected paths, in the calculus of the travel time reliability.This new way of calculating travel time reliability guarantees a kind ofrobustness of the guidance strategies.
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