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Nearshore wave forecasting and hindcasting by dynamical and statistical downscaling

机译:近岸波浪预测和动态和统计的后报   缩小

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摘要

A high-resolution nested WAM/SWAN wave model suite aimed at rapidlyestablishing nearshore wave forecasts as well as a climatology and returnvalues of the local wave conditions with Rapid Enviromental Assessment (REA) inmind is described. The system is targeted at regions where local wave growthand partial exposure to complex open-ocean wave conditions makes diagnosticwave modelling difficult. SWAN is set up on 500 m resolution and is nested in a 10 km version of WAM. Amodel integration of more than one year is carried out to map the spatialdistribution of the wave field. The model correlates well with wave buoyobservations (0.96) but overestimates the wave height somewhat (18%, bias 0.29m). To estimate wave height return values a much longer time series is requiredand running SWAN for such a period is unrealistic in a REA setting. Instead weestablish a direction-dependent transfer function between an already existingcoarse open-ocean hindcast dataset and the high-resolution nested SWAN model.Return values are estimated using ensemble estimates of two differentextreme-value distributions based on the full 52 years of statisticallydownscaled hindcast data. We find good agreement between downscaled wave heightand wave buoy observations. The cost of generating the statistically downscaledhindcast time series is negligible and can be redone for arbitrary locationswithin the SWAN domain, although the sectors must be carefully chosen for eachnew location. The method is found to be well suited to rapidly providing detailed waveforecasts as well as hindcasts and return values estimates of partly shelteredcoastal regions.
机译:描述了一种高分辨率嵌套式WAM / SWAN波浪模型套件,旨在通过快速环境评估(REA)来快速建立近岸波浪预报以及局部波浪条件的气候学和返回值。该系统的目标区域是局部波的增长以及部分暴露于复杂的开放海浪条件使得诊断波建模变得困难。 SWAN设置为500 m分辨率,并嵌套在10 km版本的WAM中。进行了一年多的模型积分,以绘制波场的空间分布图。该模型与波浪浮标观测值(0.96)具有很好的相关性,但在某种程度上高估了波浪高度(18%,偏差0.29m)。要估算波高返回值,需要更长的时间序列,并且在REA设置中在这样的时间段内运行SWAN是不现实的。取而代之的是,我们在一个已经存在的粗糙的开放海洋后播数据集和高分辨率嵌套SWAN模型之间建立一个与方向相关的传递函数。基于整个52年的统计缩减后的后播数据,使用两个不同极值分布的集合估计来估计返回值。我们发现缩小的波浪高度和波浪浮标观测值之间有很好的一致性。尽管必须为每个新位置仔细选择扇区,但是生成统计上缩减的广播时间序列的成本可以忽略不计,并且可以在SWAN域内的任意位置重做。发现该方法非常适合于快速提供部分被掩盖的沿海地区的详细海浪预报以及后预报和返回值估计。

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