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SYSTEM AND METHOD FOR FORECASTING REALIZED VOLATILITY VIA WAVELETS AND NON-LINEAR DYNAMICS

机译:通过小波和非线性动力学预测实现的波动性的系统和方法

摘要

The system and method described herein may be used to forecast realized volatility via wavelets and non-linear dynamics. In particular, a volatility time series that includes daily volatility values associated with a security may be decomposed into wavelets via multi-resolution analysis and dynamical properties associated with the individual wavelets may be analyzed to identify deterministic and non-deterministic wavelets and produce a volatility forecast derived from a fit computed on the deterministic wavelets. For example, the wavelets may be analyzed to discover time delay, Theiler, and embedding dimension values associated therewith, which may be used to project volatility values associated with each wavelet. The projected volatility values associated with each wavelet may then be summed to produce a volatility forecast associated with the security.
机译:本文描述的系统和方法可以用于通过小波和非线性动力学来预测实现的波动性。特别地,可以通过多分辨率分析将包括与证券相关的每日波动率值的波动时间序列分解为小波,并且可以分析与各个小波相关的动力学特性以识别确定性和非确定性小波并产生波动率预测从对确定性小波计算的拟合中得出。例如,可以分析小波以发现时间延迟,Theiler以及与之相关联的嵌入维度值,其可以用于投影与每个小波相关联的波动率值。然后可以将与每个小波相关联的预计波动率值相加,以产生与证券相关联的波动率预测。

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