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Millennium Development Goals Scenarios to 2015 and Beyond: An Integrated Micro-Macro Modelling Approach

机译:2015年及以后的千年发展目标情景:综合微观宏观建模方法

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摘要

The Philippines has made considerable progress in attaining the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). However, achieving all the targets remains a daunting challenge, with goals for poverty, education, and maternal mortality unlikely to be attained by 2015. Focus has now shifted to informing the post-2015 development agenda, based on future scenarios for the macroeconomy and the MDGs. In this study, such assessment is done using an integrated macro-micro modelling approach, using the Maquette for MDG Simulation (MAMS), calibrated to Philippine data, over the period 2009-2025.Findings for the scenario analysis are as follows: In the Base or business-as-usual scenario, MDG targets for household water and sanitation, as well as child health, will be met (or approximated) by 2015. However, those for education and maternal health will be attained in 2025 and 2021, respectively. The goal for poverty will not be achieved even by 2025. The national debt follows a downward trajectory over the simulation period.Meanwhile in the alternative scenarios, significantly higher outlays for primary education, health, and infrastructure (equivalent to 2% of GDP) lead to earlier attainment of the education and maternal health goals (2019 and 2016, respectively); likewise significant gains will be realized in terms of per capita income and poverty reduction by 2025. Tax financing of higher outlays maintains the debt reduction path in the Base; however, financing through increased borrowing from abroad leads to persistent escalation of foreign debt. Hence, government should be cautious about proposals for dramatic increases in social spending and infrastructure to more quickly close development gaps, unless it is able to accompany increases in spending with commensurate tax effort.
机译:菲律宾在实现千年发展目标(MDGs)方面取得了可观的进步。但是,要实现所有目标仍然是一项艰巨的挑战,到2015年,贫困,教育和孕产妇死亡率的目标不太可能实现。现在,重点已转移到根据宏观经济和社会发展的未来情况来告知2015年后发展议程。千年发展目标。在这项研究中,使用集成的宏观-微观建模方法进行了这种评估,并使用了2009-2025年间根据菲律宾数据校准的Maquette for MDG Simulations(MAMS)。方案分析的结果如下:到2015年,将实现(或近似)基本或通常情况下实现家庭用水和卫生以及儿童健康的千年发展目标。但是,分别在2025年和2021年实现教育和孕产妇保健的千年发展目标。即使到2025年,贫困目标也不会实现。在模拟期内,国债呈下降趋势。同时,在替代方案中,用于基础教育,卫生和基础设施的支出大大增加(相当于GDP的2%)早日实现教育和孕产妇保健目标(分别为2019年和2016年);到2025年,在人均收入和减少贫困​​方面也将实现显着收益。较高支出的税收筹措维持了基地的债务减少途径;然而,通过增加从国外借款的融资导致外债持续增加。因此,政府应谨慎考虑大幅增加社会支出和基础设施以更快地弥合发展差距的提议,除非政府能够在支出增加的同时进行相应的税收努力。

著录项

  • 作者

    Briones Roehlano M.;

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  • 年度 2014
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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