Italy’s prime minister, Matteo Renzi, has stated that he will resign if he loses a referendum on constitutional reform scheduled to take place before the end of the year. Lorenzo Codogno writes that although the referendum will have major implications for the Italian government and the next general election, concerns about the wider impact on Italy’s political and financial stability are overblown. He argues that the reform would be a positive step for the country, but that the supposed risks of a no vote – prolonged political instability or the Five Star Movement rising to power – are very low probability scenarios.
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