The short-term effect of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality in Tianjin, China : comparison of time series and case–crossover analyses

摘要

Background: Many studies have illustrated that ambient air pollution negatively impacts on health. However,udlittle evidence is available for the effects of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality (CVM) in Tianjin, China. Also, no study has examined which strata length for the time-stratified case–crossover analysis givesudestimates that most closely match the estimates from time series analysis. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to estimate the effects of air pollutants on CVM in Tianjin, China, and compare time-stratified case–crossover and time series analyses. Method: A time-stratified case–crossover and generalized additive model (time series) were applied to examine the impact of air pollution on CVM from 2005 to 2007. Four time-stratified case–crossover analysesudwere used by varying the stratum length (Calendar month, 28, 21 or 14 days). Jackknifing was used to compare the methods. Residual analysis was used to check whether the models fitted well. Results: Both case–crossover and time series analyses show that air pollutants (PM10, SO2 and NO2) were positively associated with CVM. The estimates from the time-stratified case–crossover varied greatly withudchanging strata length. The estimates from the time series analyses varied slightly with changing degrees ofudfreedom per year for time. The residuals from the time series analyses had less autocorrelation than thoseudfrom the case–crossover analyses indicating a better fit. Conclusion: Air pollution was associated with an increased risk of CVM in Tianjin, China. Time series analysesudperformed better than the time-stratified case–crossover analyses in terms of residual checking.