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Essays on Psychological Game Theory and Ambiguity

机译:心理博弈论与歧义论文

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摘要

This thesis mainly focuses on two themes, psychological game theory and quantum decision theory. Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 study how emotions and other-regarding preferences affect classical results in game theory. Chapter 4 tests the quantum decision theory model of the Ellsberg paradox that has been developed by al-Nowaihi and Dhami (2017).\udChapter 2 models guilt-aversion/surprise-seeking, and the attribution of intentions behind these emotions in a one-shot public goods game. Using the induced beliefs method in both within-subjects design (strategy method) and between-subjects design, the experimental results show that guilt-aversion is predominant relative to surprise-seeking, and the attribution of intentions behind these emotions are important.\udChapter 3 compares three main competing explanations for the choice of effort by workers in a gift exchange game - classical reciprocity (Akerlofs action-based formulation, Malmendier and Schmidt (2017) formulation) and belief-based reciprocity (psychological game theory). Experimental results show that all models explain well about the workers choices of efforts, and psychological game theory can predict their emotions of guilt. However, Akerlofs model is the best in terms of parsimony and fit.\udChapter 4 experimentally tests the matching probabilities for the Ellsberg paradox, which is based on a parameter-free theoretical derivation using quantum probabilities rather than Kolmogorov probabilities (al-Nowaihi and Dhami, 2017). The experimental results are consistent with the quantum model, and subjects are ambiguity seeking for the low probabilities but ambiguity averse for the medium and high probabilities.
机译:本文主要研究两个主题,心理博弈论和量子决策论。第2章和第3章研究了情绪和其他偏好如何影响博弈论中的经典结果。第4章测试了al-Nowaihi和Dhami(2017)开发的Ellsberg悖论的量子决策理论模型。\ ud第2章对内-厌恶/惊奇寻求进行建模,并将这些情感背后的意图归因射击公益游戏。实验结果表明,在被试内部设计(策略方法)和被试间设计中都使用归纳信念方法,内version感是相对于寻求惊喜的主导,这些情感背后的意图归因很重要。\ udChapter图3比较了礼物交换博弈中工人的努力选择的三种主要竞争解释-经典互惠(基于Akerlofs行动的公式,Malmendier和Schmidt(2017)公式)和基于信念的互惠(心理博弈)。实验结果表明,所有模型都很好地说明了工人的努力选择,并且心理博弈理论可以预测他们的内情绪。然而,就简约性和拟合度而言,Akerlofs模型是最好的。\ ud第4章实验性地测试了Ellsberg悖论的匹配概率,它基于使用量子概率而非Kolmogorov概率(al-Nowaihi和Dhami)的无参数理论推导。 ,2017)。实验结果与量子模型相吻合,研究对象对低概率不明确,而对中概率和高概率不明确。

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    Wei, Mengxing;

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  • 年度 2017
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  • 正文语种 en
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