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Labor force projections up to 2053 for 26 EU countries, by age, sex, and highest level of educational attainment

机译:按年龄,性别和受教育程度的最高水平,对26个欧盟国家的劳动力预测到2053年

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摘要

Background: One expected consequence of population aging in Europe is the shrinkage of the labor force. Most existing labor force projections allow only inferences about the size and age structure of the future labor force. Objective: In comparison to existing labor force projections, which disaggregate only by age and sex, these projections include information about the highest level of educational attainment (tertiary vs. non-tertiary education), so that an additional level of heterogeneity in labor force participation is considered. This heterogeneity enters the projection methodology through population projection data as well as labor force participation data, since both components are decomposed in the three dimensions of age, sex, and education. Based on data from the European Labor Force Survey (EU LFS), three scenarios were designed to project the economically active population for 26 EU countries up to 2053. Results: Adding the educational dimension to labor force projections discloses a significant shift towards tertiary education degrees between 2008 and 2053. This educational upgrading of the European labor force is not driven by developments in a few large countries but can be expected to take place in each of the 26 analyzed countries. Conclusions: A better educated but shrinking labor force is likely to be able to alleviate some of the anticipated economic consequences of population aging. The presented projections of education-specific labor supply can serve as inputs into forecasts of economic growth that include educational differentials in labor productivity. (author's abstract)
机译:背景:欧洲人口老龄化的一个预期后果是劳动力的减少。现有的大多数劳动力预测都只能推断出未来劳动力的规模和年龄结构。目标:与仅按年龄和性别分类的现有劳动力预测相比,这些预测包括有关最高学历的信息(高等教育与非高等教育),从而使劳动力参与的异质性更高被认为。这种异质性通过人口预测数据和劳动力参与数据进入预测方法,因为这两个组成部分都在年龄,性别和教育三个维度上分解。根据欧洲劳动力调查(EU LFS)的数据,设计了三种方案来预测到2053年为止26个欧盟国家的经济活动人口。结果:在劳动力预测中增加了教育维度,这表明向高等教育程度的重大转变在2008年至2053年之间。欧洲劳动力的这种教育升级不是由几个大国家的发展所驱动,而是可以预期在所分析的26个国家中的每一个国家进行。结论:受过良好教育但不断萎缩的劳动力可能能够减轻人口老龄化带来的一些预期经济后果。所提出的针对教育的劳动力供应预测可以作为对经济增长的预测的输入,其中包括劳动生产率的教育差异。 (作者的摘要)

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    Loichinger Elke;

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  • 年度 2015
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 en
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