Application of a Hybrid Optimized BP Network Model to Estimate Water Quality Parameters of Beihai Lake in Beijing

摘要

Nowadays, freshwater resources are facing numerous crises and pressures, resulting from both artificial and natural process, so it is crucial to predict the water quality for the department of water environment protection. This paper proposes a hybrid optimized algorithm involving a particle swarm optimization (PSO) and genetic algorithm (GA) combined BP neural network that can predict the water quality in time series and has good performance in Beihai Lake in Beijing. The data sets consist of six water quality parameters which include Hydrogen Ion Concentration (pH), Chlorophyll-a (CHLA), Hydrogenated Amine (NH4H), Dissolved Oxygen (DO), Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), and electrical conductivity (EC). The performance of the model was assessed through the absolute percentage error ( A P E m a x ), the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), the root mean square error (RMSE), and the coefficient of determination ( R 2 ). Study results show that the model based on PSO and GA to optimize the BP neural network is able to predict the water quality parameters with reasonable accuracy, suggesting that the model is a valuable tool for lake water quality estimation. The results show that the hybrid optimized BP model has a higher prediction capacity and better robustness of water quality parameters compared with the traditional BP neural network, the PSO-optimized BP neural network, and the GA-optimized BP neural network.