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A two-step indirect inference approach to estimate the long-run risk asset pricing model

机译:一种两步的间接推理方法来估计长期风险资产定价模型

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摘要

The long-run consumption risk model provides a theoretically appealing explanation for prominent asset pricing puzzles, but its intricate structure presents a challenge for econometric analysis. This paper proposes a two-step indirect inference approach that disentangles the estimation of the model's macroeconomic dynamics and the investor's preference parameters. A Monte Carlo study explores the feasibility and efficiency of the estimation strategy. We apply the method to recent U.S. data and provide a critical re-assessment of the long-run risk model's ability to reconcile the real economy and financial markets. This two-step indirect inference approach is potentially useful for the econometric analysis of other prominent consumption-based asset pricing models that are equally difficult to estimate.
机译:长期消费风险模型为突出的资产定价难题提供了理论上有吸引力的解释,但其复杂的结构为计量经济分析提出了挑战。本文提出了一种两步间接推理方法,该方法可以解开模型的宏观经济动力和投资者偏好参数的估计。蒙特卡洛的研究探索了估计策略的可行性和效率。我们将该方法应用于美国的最新数据,并对长期风险模型调节实体经济和金融市场的能力进行了重要的重新评估。这种分为两步的间接推理方法可能对其他同样难以估计的基于消费的著名资产定价模型的计量分析有用。

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