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Nonlinear response of modelled stratospheric ozone to changes in greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances in the recent past

机译:过去,模拟的平流层臭氧对温室气体和消耗臭氧层物质变化的非线性响应

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摘要

In the recent past, the evolution of stratospheric ozone (O) wasaffected by both increasing ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhousegases (GHGs). The impact of the single forcings on O is well known.Interactions between the simultaneously increased GHG and ODS concentrations,however, can occur and lead to nonlinear O changes. In this study, weinvestigate if nonlinear processes have affected O changes between 1960and 2000. This is done with an idealised set of time slice simulations withthe chemistry-climate model EMAC. Due to nonlinearity the past ozoneloss is diminished throughout the stratosphere, with a maximum reduction of1.2 % at 3 hPa. The total ozone column loss between 1960 and 2000 that ismainly attributed to the ODS increase is mitigated in the extra-polar regionsby up to 1.1 % due to nonlinear processes. A separation of the Ochanges into the contribution from chemistry and transport shows thatnonlinear interactions occur in both. In the upper stratosphere a reducedefficiency of the ClO-catalysed O loss chiefly causes thenonlinear O increase. An enhanced formation of halogen reservoirspecies through the reaction with methane (CH) reduces the abundance ofhalogen radicals significantly. The temperature-induced deceleration of theO loss reaction rate in the Chapman cycle is reduced, which leads to anonlinear O decrease and counteracts the increase due to ClO.Nonlinear effects on the NO abundance cause hemispheric asymmetricnonlinear changes of the O loss. Nonlinear changes in O transportoccur in particular in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) during the monthsSeptember to November. Here, the residual circulation is weakened in thelower stratosphere, which goes along with a reduced O transport fromthe tropics to high latitudes. Thus, O decreases in the SH polarregion but increases in the SH midlatitudes. The existence of nonlinearitiesimplies that future ozone change due to ODS decline slightly depends on theprevailing GHG concentrations. Therefore the future ozone evolution will notsimply be a reversal of the past.
机译:在最近的过去,平流层臭氧(O)的演变受到臭氧消耗物质(ODS)和温室气体(GHG)的增加的影响。单一强迫对O的影响是众所周知的。然而,同时增加的GHG和ODS浓度之间可能发生相互作用,并导致非线性O变化。在这项研究中,我们调查了非线性过程是否影响了1960年至2000年之间的O变化。这是通过使用化学-气候模型EMAC进行的一组理想的时间片模拟来完成的。由于非线性,过去的臭氧损失在整个平流层中都减少了,在3 hPa时最大减少了1.2%。在1960年至2000年之间,臭氧层的总损失(主要归因于ODS的增加)由于非线性过程而在极地以外地区减少了1.1%。将Ochanges分解为化学和运输的贡献表明,两者均发生非线性相互作用。在高空平流层中,ClO催化的O损失效率降低主要是导致非线性O的增加。通过与甲烷(CH)的反应增强了卤素储集物质的形成,从而显着降低了大量的卤素自由基。在Chapman循环中,温度引起的O损失反应速率的降低会减少,这会导致O的非线性减少并抵消ClO的增加.NO丰度的非线性影响会导致O损失的半球非对称非线性变化。 9月至11月的几个月中,O的运输发生了非线性变化,特别是在南半球(SH)。在这里,较低的平流层中的残留环流减弱了,伴随着从热带到高纬度的O运移减少。因此,O在南极极区减少,但在南半球纬度增加。非线性的存在意味着由于ODS减少而导致的未来臭氧变化在某种程度上取决于当前的GHG浓度。因此,未来的臭氧演变将不会是过去的逆转。

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