Long-Short-Term Memory Network Based Hybrid Model for Short-Term Electrical Load Forecasting

摘要

Short-term electrical load forecasting is of great significance to the safe operation, efficient management, and reasonable scheduling of the power grid. However, the electrical load can be affected by different kinds of external disturbances, thus, there exist high levels of uncertainties in the electrical load time series data. As a result, it is a challenging task to obtain accurate forecasting of the short-term electrical load. In order to further improve the forecasting accuracy, this study combines the data-driven long-short-term memory network (LSTM) and extreme learning machine (ELM) to present a hybrid model-based forecasting method for the prediction of short-term electrical loads. In this hybrid model, the LSTM is adopted to extract the deep features of the electrical load while the ELM is used to model the shallow patterns. In order to generate the final forecasting result, the predicted results of the LSTM and ELM are ensembled by the linear regression method. Finally, the proposed method is applied to two real-world electrical load forecasting problems, and detailed experiments are conducted. In order to verify the superiority and advantages of the proposed hybrid model, it is compared with the LSTM model, the ELM model, and the support vector regression (SVR). Experimental and comparison results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid model can give satisfactory performance and can achieve much better performance than the comparative methods in this short-term electrical load forecasting application.