Data-driven Transient Stability Assessment Model Considering Network Topology Changes via Mahalanobis Kernel Regression and Ensemble Learning

摘要

Transient stability assessment (TSA) is of great importance in power system operation and control. One of the usual tasks in TSA is to estimate the critical clearing time (CCT) of a given fault under the given network topology and pre-fault power flow. Data-driven methods try to obtain models describing the mapping between these factors and the CCT from a large number of samples. However, the influence of network topology on CCT is hard to be analyzed and is often ignored, which makes the models inaccurate and unpractical. In this paper, a novel data-driven TSA model combining Mahalanobis kernel regression and ensemble learning is proposed to deal with the problem. The model is a weighted sum of several sub-models. Each sub-model only uses the data of one topology to construct a kernel regressor. The weights are determined by both the topological similarity and numerical similarity between the samples. The similarities are decided by the parameters in Mahalanobis distance, and the parameters are to be trained. To reduce the model complexity, sub-models within the same topology category share the same parameters. When estimating CCT, the model uses not only the sub-model which the sample topology belongs to, but also other sub-models. Thus, it avoids the problem that there may be too few data under some topologies. It also efficiently utilizes information of data under all the topologies. Moreover, its decision-making process is clear and understandable, and an effective training algorithm is also designed. Test results on both the IEEE 10-machine 39-bus and a real system verify the effectiveness of the proposed model.