Interactive Scenario Scnnaer (ISS): A Tool to Support the Dialogue between211 Science and Policy on Scenario Development Version 1.0

摘要

In order to explore long-term policy options for controlling climate change,211u001ethere is a need to develop and evaluate long-term emission scenarios. If these 211u001escenarios are to be policy relevant, they should account for differences between 211u001eworld regions with respect to their contribution to the problem, their stage of 211u001eeconomic development, their vulnerability to climate change and their ability to 211u001econtrol emissions. The scenarios should also deal with the question of fair 211u001edistribution of future emission budgets. Therefore it is important to involve 211u001epolicy makers in the development of these scenarios. On the basis of requests and 211u001ecomments from policy makers participating in the Delft Science Policy Dialogue 211u001eworkshops, a new software tool, called the Interactive Scenario Scanner (ISS), 211u001ehas been constructed at RIVM. ISS is a computer model that assists in the 211u001einteractive construction and evaluation of long-term emission scenarios using the 211u001eparameters of the Kaya Identity to define scenarios and the climate indicators of 211u001ethe Safe Landing Approach to scan their likely consequences for global climate 211u001echange and its impacts. This tool can be used to construct proto-scenarios, which 211u001ecan then be further elaborated and analyzed with such sophisticated energy and 211u001eclimate change models as IMAGE 2. Recent experiences with the application of ISS 211u001eindicate that it indeed can be a useful tool to involve policy makers in the 211u001edevelopment of emission scenarios. Moreover, ISS has also been shown useful in 211u001eeducating policy makers on the complexity of the problem and enhancing 211u001ecommunication between, and among, scientists and policy makers.