Grunnprognose for Godstransport 2006-2040 (Forecasts for Norwegian Freight Transport 2006-2040)

摘要

Every fourth year, the Norwegian Ministry of Transport and Communications develops a national master plan for transport. As a reference scenario related to this plan, the Institute of Transport Economics has calculated base forecasts for freight transport within Norway and connected to imports and exports. The calculations are based on: (1) exogeneous input on economic growth within 38 sectors, as given by the Ministry of Finance; (2) a spatial general equilibrium model for Norwegian regions; and (3) the national model for freight transport in Norway. The forecasts cover the road, rail and sea modes. For the period 2006 to 2040, a 1.37 per cent annual increase in domestic freight transport (tons transported) is protected, and the increase in ton kilometers comes out of 1.45 percent annually. The highest growth is expected within rail freight (2.01 percent per year), while trucking is expected to grow by 1.48 percent per year. For domestic (coastal) sea freight, the estimated annual growth rate is 1.33 percent in the period 2006-2040. Since the capacity constraints affecting the rail network are not adequately reflected in the model, rail market shares are likely to be overestimated in the forecasts. Unless the bottlenecks in the rail network are removed, the road freight mode is likely to grow at a faster pace than projected, at the expense of rail.