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Bank Failures and the Cost of Systemic Risk: Evidence from 1900-1930. FDIC Center for Financial Research Working Paper, No. 2008-09

机译:银行倒闭与系统性风险成本:1900 - 1930年的证据。 FDIC金融研究中心工作文件,第2008-09号

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This paper investigates the effect of bank failures on economic growth using data from 1900 to 1930, a period that predates active government stabilization policies and includes periods of banking system distress that are not coincident with recessions. Using both VAR and a difference-in-difference methodology that exploits the reactions of the New York and Connecticut economies to the Panic of 1907, we estimate the impact of bank failures on economic activity. The results indicate that bank failures reduce subsequent economic growth. Over this period, a 0.12 percent (1 standard deviation) increase in the liabilities of the failed depository institutions results in a reduction of 17 percentage points in the growth rate of industrial production and a 4 percentage point decline in real GNP growth. The reductions occur within three quarters of the initial bank failure shock and can be interpreted as a measure of the costs of systemic risk in the banking sector.

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