Cumulative Impact of Developments on the Surrounding Roadways' Traffic

摘要

In order to recommend a procedure for cumulative impact study, four different travel demand models were developed, calibrated, and validated. The base year for the models was 2005. Two study areas were used, and the models were run for three periods (AM peak, PM peak, and average daily traffic). The models were developed based on the two regional models of the Baltimore- Washington, D.C. area. The calibrated models were utilized to forecast traffic for the years 2010, 2020, and 2030. The 2010 forecast results were compared to the ground counts. In total, 72 different models were developed and run. It was concluded that the Sub-TAZ model forecasted traffic more realistically and this model was best suited for the cumulative impact study. It was recommended that the base regional model should be zoomed-in by the Sub-TAZ model for the study area, in order to conduct a cumulative impact study. The Sub-TAZ model can also simply be applied to the regional model. The researchers also investigated the feasibility of using TRANSIMS to develop an Activity- Based regional model. The research team developed and calibrated TRANSIMS Trip-Based (Track 1) and Activity-Based (Track 2) for one study area. The research team concluded that the regional Activity-Based model can be developed and calibrated in three steps, transitioning from a Four-Step model to Sub-TAZ, then to TRANSIMS Track 1, and finally to TRANSIMS Track 2.