Preview of Data for U.S. Housing Market Conditions, 1st Quarter, 2011

摘要

Housing indicators for the first quarter of 2011 continue to portray a fragile recovery in the housing market. In the production sector, the number of single-family housing starts, permits, and completions all declined. In contrast, multifamily building permits and starts rose, although completions fell slightly. In the marketing sector, sales of existing homes rose, but sales of new homes dropped slightly. The Standard and Poors Case- Shiller national seasonally adjusted (SA) repeat-sales house price index, which is reported with a lag, recorded a 2.1-percent decline in the value of homes in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared with the third quarter and a 4.1-percent decline from year-earlier levels. The less volatile Federal Housing Finance Agencys (FHFA) purchase-only repeat-sales index, also reported on a lagged basis, estimated a 0.8-percent (SA) decrease in home values in the fourth quarter of 2010 and a 4.0-percent decline from year-earlier levels. Inventories of available homes at the current sales rate decreased in the first quarter of 2011, reaching an average rate of 7.6 months supply of new homes and 8.1 months supply of existing homes, down from rates of 7.9 and 9.5 months supply, respectively, in the previous quarter. The national homeownership rate declined in the first quarter of 2011, as did the homeownership rate for minorities. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the percentage of delinquencies for prime, subprime, and FHA mortgage loans all fell in the fourth quarter, while the percentage of newly initiated fore- closures declined for prime and FHA loans but increased for subprime loans (the data are reported with a 2-month lag). The advance estimate of overall real growth in the national economy for the first quarter was a 1.8-percent increase at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), following a 3.1-percent expansion in the fourth quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Residential investment declined by 4.1 percent in the first quarter compared with an increase of 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010.