Annual Energy Outlook 2011 with Projections to 2035

摘要

The Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (AEO2011), prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), presents long-term projections of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2035, based on results from EIAs National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The report begins with an Executive summary that highlights key aspects of the projections. It is followed by a Legislation and regulations section that discusses evolving legislative and regulatory issues, including a summary of recently enacted legislation and regulations, such as a recently announced (October 13, 2010) EPA waiver, which allows the use of motor gasoline blends containing 15 percent ethanol in newer vehicles (model year 2007 or later), or the 7-year moratorium on offshore drilling in the Atlantic and Pacific that was announced by the U.S. Department of the Interior on December 1, 2010. The Issues in focus section contains discussions of selected energy topics, including a discussion of the results in two cases that adopt different assumptions about the future course of existing policies: one case assumes the extension of a selected group of existing public policiescorporate average fuel economy standards, appliance standards, production tax credits, and the elimination of sunset provisions in existing energy policies; the other case assumes only the elimination of sunset provisions. Other discussions include: a look at evolving environmental regulations that affect the power sector; the economics of carbon capture and storage; prospects for shale gas production, including cost uncertainty and its impact on decisions for new power plant builds, fuel use, and emissions; and the basis for world oil price and production trends in AEO2011. The Market trends section summarizes the projections for energy markets. The analysis in AEO2011 focuses primarily on a Reference case, Low and High Economic Growth cases, and Low and High Oil Price cases. Results from a number of other alternative cases also are presented, illustrating uncertainties associated with the Reference case projections for energy demand, supply, and prices. Complete tables for the five primary cases are provided in Appendixes A through C. Major results from many of the alternative cases are provided in Appendix D.