Critical Evaluation of 'The Community Analysis Model.'

摘要

This report evaluates the Community Analysis Model (CAM), a large computer - based mathematical model of growth and change in urban neighborhoods, prepared by a team of Massachusetts Institute of Technology scholars. The subject of the model is a generic urban area. The computer model has been estimated and solved for six urban areas, each a part of a Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area, and has been used to analyze developments, to forecast growth and change, and to plan development for those six areas. The basic exogenous variables in the model are the total annual migrations of people (classifed by age, education, and ethnicity) and jobs (classified by job type) into and out of the urban area. All the behavioral equations are estimated from census data and from data collected by surveys conducted for the project. CAM also analyzes employment location and two local government activities, zoning and public school provision, as well as neighborhood definitions, natural increase and migration factors, residential location, the dynamics of local real estate markets, construction and demolition of housing units and investment in maintenance of the housing stock. CAM may be used with ease by the non - specialist; the equations and variables are limited, with similar characteristics in each set, and the mathematical analysis is done by computer. It is concluded that among other urban models, CAM can be best used for advising local planners on problems they will face from urban growth and change. It is suggested that CAM's presently confused goal be further defined. The advantage of the noneconomist CAM is its diversity, i.e., ability to include attitudinal data about race and neighborhood prestige, and political process data by which school characteristics are determined. It is recommended that CAM be improved through more attention to economics literature, including microeconomic papers on housing demand, urban travel demand, and local public choice. A discussion of the theoretical aspects of CAM and its potential for practical use and numerical implementation, and a comparison with other urban models are included. References are provided.