Future of Rental Housing and New Forms of Homeownership

摘要

This study analyzes the condominium - cooperative conversion phenomenon within the context of the rental market. Models are produced which explain the variation of the rental stock and its components across Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA's), the tenure choice of individual households, the conversion of housing units across SMSA's, and the spatial distribution of conversions in a single housing market -- New York City. The report concludes that the rental housing market in the United States appears to operating efficiently. The percentage of households renting housing units varies considerably across SMSA's. The behavior of certain variables is the basis for this variation: the ratio of house values to median incomes, household composition (average size and characteristics), and the rate of population change. Other variables are shown to affect the percentage of families renting single - family units in SMSA's. The report presents a quadripartite - logic model of tenure choice which models choice of housing mode across four dimensions. The probability that a given household will choose a given mode is shown to be a function of family size, current income, a number of permanent income and wealth proxies, a variable which captures the differential effects of costs and taxes on owners versus renters by SMSA, and population density which acts as a proxy for land cost in its effect on intensity of land usage. In addition, the report models the relative cooperative and condominium conversions during 1970 - 79 for 32 SMSA's for which HUD provided conversion data. Significant variables in explaining the relative conversions were found to be median income, the proportion of buildings with more than 20 units, the growth in small households, and a variable which expresses differential tax and cost incentives to own relative to renting. This model indicates that conversions are a market response to the demand for ownership created by tax incentives and changed household composition. Finally, an analysis of the conversion process in New York City suggests that the conversion controls in New York may have had some protective effect for residents without unduly impeding the general market adjustment of housing tenures to demand. Tables and footnotes are supplied. Appendices present a formal model of the location of tenure choice within a monocentric metropolitan area and detail an attempt to estimate the number of rented condominium units in the United States. (Author abstract modified).