Oil-Spill Risk Analysis for the Central and Western Gulf of Mexico (Proposed Sales 104 and 105) Outer Continental Shelf Lease Areas

摘要

The Federal Government has proposed to offer Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lands in the Central and Western Gulf of Mexico for oil and gas leasing. The report examines what could happen if oil is found, and attempts to compare relative risks of future leasing with risks of existing leases and transportation of imported oil in the study area. The report summarizes results of an oil spill risk analysis conducted for the proposed OCS lease offerings in the Central Gulf (Sale 104) and Western Gulf (Sale 105) Planning Areas. For the 'most likely find' volume scenario, the proposed lease offering will result in an estimated 0.25 billion barrels of oil being found and produced over a period spanning 18 years. There is a 60 percent chance that no spills of 1,000 barrels or larger will occur and contact land. There is little risk to all targets from the 'most likely find' volume scenario. The highest probability (38 percent) of one or more spills occurring and contacting targets is to the Gulf-wide marshes target. The highest probability (10 percent) of occurrence and contact to land segments is to land segment number 10, on the Texas coast.