Strategic Issues Facing Transportation. Volume 1: Scenario Planning for Freight Transportation Infrastructure Investment.

摘要

The future rarely moves in predictable, incremental ways. Often seemingly small changes in technology, demographics, regulations, economics, or a myriad of other factors have dramatic and unintended impacts on how any organization (public or private) plans and operates. These nonlinear impacts are very difficult to predict using traditional forecasting methods and techniques since they, by definition, do not follow any historical patterns. For example, few in April 1956 would have foreseen the global trade implications (and resulting freight infrastructure requirements) of Malcolm McLeans small experimental move of 58 metal containers on the ship the Ideal-X from Newark to Houston. What had been intended as a way to reduce traffic congestion on the highways through short sea shipping along the East Coast ended up playing a key role in making offshoring of manufacturing in low-cost locations across the globe economically viable. Containerization is ultimately the driving force behind the tremendous infrastructure projects at and adjacent to ports on the East and West Coasts as well as the Gulf. While this impact might seem obvious in retrospect, it certainly was not at the time. Are we facing a similar situation today. In 10, 20, 30 years from now, will people look back and be amazed that we were unable to predict the full impact that some new innovation had on the economy. Probably. It is never easy at any point in time to be able to predict which, out of all of the possible future outcomes, will actually happen and should therefore be planned for.